Global coordination is the only way to manage intensifying competition for minerals, study finds

As geopolitical tensions rise, the race for critical minerals is putting global supply chains at risk according to new research published today (5 June 2026) by the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise (CETEx) at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

In ‘Collective Security in a Fragmented World’, Hugh Miller and Pau Morandi warn that global stockpiling is likely to impact climate action as “the build-out phase of the energy transition requires a sharp, front-loaded increase in mineral-intensive infrastructure, generating demand that substantially exceeds what current supply chains were designed to accommodate.” 

The report states that “aggregate stockpile demand from seven economies alone could represent up to 34% of global annual cobalt supply and over 10% of global lithium, graphite and copper supply, risking the simultaneous scramble that would amplify precisely the price volatility stockpiling is designed to hedge against.” 

Beyond the energy sector, the rapid expansion of data centres, advances in artificial intelligence and next-generation semiconductor technologies are intensifying demand for high-purity metals and rare earth elements. New defence spending commitments across NATO member states are also generating additional pressure on markets for specialised alloys, magnet materials and battery chemicals, with global defence spending up 9% year-on-year in 2024, compared with the 2.7% average growth seen between 2017 and 2022. 

The report confirms that “without coordination, stockpiling programmes will intensify competition for minerals, heighten price volatility, and induce the shocks these strategies are designed to mitigate.” With the US-China rare earth truce expiring in November 2026, the window to coordinate before the next supply shock is closing.

The authors state that coordination offers three advantages no national programme can replicate: “staggered build-up schedules reduce simultaneous demand shocks, pre-agreed release conditions improve market predictability, and an integrated framework connects short-term stockpiling to longer-term supply diversification.”  

To address this, Miller and Morandi go beyond diagnosis. The report provides a systematic assessment of nine existing international institutions against five criteria and sets out the detailed operational mechanics of how a coordinated stockpiling mechanism could actually work, covering procurement, stock release conditions, market monitoring and burden-sharing arrangements. 

The authors conclude that coordinating stockpiling through existing international organisations is the most practical path forward, avoiding new bureaucratic layers that could drive up the costs of climate transition. Any successful mechanism would need to combine enforcement capacity, technical expertise, transparency, and strong governance.

The International Energy Agency, with its existing oil reserve programme and growing critical minerals work, emerges as the most fit-for-purpose institution to lead international coordination of critical mineral stockpiling. The report also sets out a broader institutional assessment, exploring the arrangements and considerations that any effective regime would need to address.

Hugh Miller, Critical Minerals Lead at the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said:  

 “Our findings show that stockpiling itself is not the risk, the current scramble to secure supplies is.

“Geopolitical tensions across the world have led to a race for more critical minerals but if this uncoordinated approach continues, it may lead to greater price volatility, exacerbate shortages, and increase the cost of the energy transition. 

“Unless coordination is established, we may see delays on the rollout of clean energy, electric vehicles and other climate technologies.”  

Pau Morandi, Policy Fellow at the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise, said:

“Critical minerals add another layer of complexity in comparison to other commodities. Each one has its own market structure, its own concentration risks, and its own vulnerabilities to trade weaponisation. 

“That means bringing in producer countries as genuine partners, not just supply sources. 

“Only a mechanism that accounts for the full supply chain can make coordinated stockpiling succeed.”

-ENDS- 

To see the research or for interviews with the authors, please contact Liam Collins on l.collins4@lse.ac.uk or gri.media@lse.ac.uk    

Notes to editors 

• CETEx was established in 2024 as a specialised research and policy centre to support the ambitious reforms required to deliver sustainable, inclusive and resilient economies and financial systems across Europe. CETEx is hosted by the London School of Economics and Political Science.